First, let me say this: I think the jury is still out on this issue. No one really knows. But here are my thoughts.
I have seen nothing definitive that suggests, one way or another, that putting a book online for free increases or decreases sales. I’m sure that there are statistics out there and everyone has their opinion, but I think different books are affected differently for reasons that I attempt to address below.
In my opinion, the strongest argument that can be made for offering books for free online is that of increasing word-of-mouth. There is strong evidence that word-of-mouth, whether generated by reviews or simply communities that surround particular books, can significantly affect sales. A study by Judith Chevalier and Dina Mayzlin of the Yale School of Management, “The Effect of Word of Mouth on Sales: Online Book Reviews” attempts to quantify the effects. They conclude that online reviews can directly affect sales though they don’t really tackle the why.
Let’s consider why this might be and how word-of-mouth might affect sales of different titles differently. (I just have to say that choosing between the use of affect and effect is driving me craaaazy!)
Visibility. One of the greatest challenges that we have as publishers is that of making our products visible. According to a 2008 Publishers Weekly article, nearly 300,000 books are published each year in the U.S. alone. Figure close to that number in the UK. That’s a lot of books in the English language.
Certainly, only a small portion of these books are computer/technical books, but that doesn’t mean that the rest of the print book market isn’t competition.
Distribution. The number of retailers selling books is shrinking dramatically, although it’s easier than ever today to find a book that you want using one of the online book retailers. How does this affect a book publisher’s business?
For better or worse, before the dominance of online retailing, publishers used to control distribution to a significant extent by buying what is known as coop advertising. Yes, those featured books in the bookstore chains are usually there because some publisher paid for the placement. Sometimes they’re there because the store manager really likes a book, but most of the time someone’s paying.
That made a huge difference when there were only just so many stores and when we wanted books we went to a brick and mortar store. Those stores can hold only a portion of the 300,000 new books published every year so their inventory is already selective. But stick Amazon or similar in the mix and the inventory is massive. So much noise. So much to choose from.
Subject.
Competition.
Noise.
Convenience. The book as medium is convenient. It’s portable, has an instant refresh rate, high contrast, low glare, and reading a book is easy on the eyes. But that’s not an argument for why printed books will stick around. Technology will continue to improve and e-ink is already looking pretty good.
No. Not a bad idea but I don’t really trust questionnaires. Too, I don’t think this would actually measure the effect that offering a book online for free would have on both visibility and market penetration.
I’ve met many people who tell me that when a book is online for free they won’t buy the print version. That’s no surprise. I’ve even had people tell me that they turn to bittorrent first and don’t buy books anymore. That’s not surprise either.
But I think the issue is one of visibility.
There are so many books published and that means there is so much noise. I think one of our primary challenges is to rise above the din. My theory is that putting something out there, getting it in front of more people, increases the potential number of buyers for any particular book. Effectively, it increases the portion of the market that we are able to reach by rising above the noise. And the more people who see a book, who know it exists and have perhaps paged through it, the greater the number of people who will buy it. Not a greater percentage of potential buyers necessarily, but a greater number of total buyers who will actually make the leap and pay for that book.